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WAKE UP - FREAK OUT
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00:00:05:01 00:00:13:03 wake up - freak out
00:00:33:01 00:00:34:23 Give me that!
00:00:35:09 00:00:38:09 This really isn't about polar bears any more.
00:00:39:16 00:00:45:11 At this very moment, the fate of civilization itself hangs in the balance.
00:00:45:20 00:00:50:06 The way we have been calculating the future impacts of climate change up to now
00:00:50:09 00:00:53:09 has been missing a really important piece of the picture.
00:00:53:10 00:00:58:13 We are now dangerously close to the tipping point in the world's climate system
00:00:59:04 00:01:01:18 this is the point of no return
00:01:01:19 00:01:06:13 after which truly catastrophic changes become inevitable.
00:01:06:24 00:01:08:23 Think of it like this:
00:01:08:24 00:01:10:24 For the past three million years,
00:01:11:00 00:01:15:19 our planet's climate has always been in one or the other of two stable states,
00:01:15:20 00:01:21:02 small changes in solar incidence pushed us from one to the other.
00:01:21:11 00:01:26:08 When we are in this cooler dip, the planet has an ice age.
00:01:26:12 00:01:30:14 When we are in the warmer one, the planet's climate is very much as it is now,
00:01:30:15 00:01:34:10  and has been throughout the whole of human history.
00:01:34:11 00:01:37:10 The problem is that our use of fossil fuels
00:01:37:10 00:01:40:09 is pushing us further and further out of our little stable dip
00:01:40:10 00:01:43:12 and up the far slope of this hill.
00:01:43:13 00:01:48:11 The tipping point is the point at which we cross the peak of the hill,
00:01:48:12 00:01:51:09 and we no longer need to keep pushing
00:01:51:10 00:01:55:10 to keep the planet moving towards a much hotter place.
00:01:55:11 00:01:58:20 It will just keep rolling onwards, all on its own.
00:01:59:04 00:02:04:15 This tipping point exists because of a set of positive feedbacks in the climate systems
00:02:04:16 00:02:11:22 mechanisms that can amplify the effects of man-made warming and lead to runaway change.
00:02:12:17 00:02:15:09 One of them is the Albedo Effect.
00:02:15:10 00:02:20:22 White surfaces reflect more solar radiation than dark surfaces,
00:02:21:00 00:02:24:01 so as global warming from greenhouse gases melts ice and snow,
00:02:24:04 00:02:26:22 it leaves behind dark ocean or land.
00:02:26:22 00:02:32:00 these surfaces now absorb more solar radiation than before - so adding to warming
00:02:32:05 00:02:36:01 which melts more ice and snow, and so on.
00:02:36:23 00:02:42:18 Uncondensed water vapour is actually a more important greenhouse gas than CO2.
00:02:42:19 00:02:45:24 Although we aren't actually emitting much water vapour directly,
00:02:46:00 00:02:49:04 as the planet warms, evaporation rates increase,
00:02:49:05 00:02:53:12 raising humidity and thickening the Earth's thermal blanket
00:02:53:13 00:02:58:12 which in turn raises temperatures, which further increases evaporation rates,and so on.
00:02:59:14 00:03:04:20 Normally, about half the CO2 emitted each year from human activities
00:03:05:01 00:03:09:12 is re-absorbed by a combination of forests, plankton, and the ocean itself.
00:03:09:20 00:03:12:20 But the ocean surface is becoming more and more acidic
00:03:12:20 00:03:16:03 as concentrations of CO2 dissolved in it rise.
00:03:16:05 00:03:20:14 At the same time the water temperature at the surface is also going up,
00:03:20:16 00:03:25:22 forming a layer of warm, acidic water that is spreading across the ocean surface,
00:03:25:24 00:03:30:10 killing off the plankton that locks CO2 out of the atmosphere.
00:03:30:10 00:03:35:07 Worse, warm water holds less CO2 than cold water
00:03:35:07 00:03:41:07 so as it heats up, it starts releasing some of the CO2 it had previously absorbed.
00:03:43:09 00:03:48:16 Just like marine ecosystems, land-based ecosystems normally act as carbon sinks,
00:03:48:17 00:03:52:03 taking carbon from the atmosphere and using it for growth.
00:03:52:22 00:03:56:21 But as these eco-systems heat up, they become unbalanced
00:03:56:24 00:04:00:16 plants become less and less effective at taking in CO2
00:04:00:17 00:04:05:03 while micro-organisms in the soil become more and more effective at putting it out,
00:04:05:04 00:04:10:08 causing the ecosystem as a whole to go from being a carbon sink to being a carbon source.
00:04:10:16 00:04:18:24 As temperatures rise and rains fail, forests dry out, and fires don't get put out.
00:04:18:24 00:04:22:06 All of the forest's stored carbon goes up in smoke,
00:04:22:08 00:04:26:09 adding to the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, further increasing warming,
00:04:26:10 00:04:29:08  which further degrades the carbon sinks.
00:04:30:21 00:04:37:14 In Siberia, a vast area of frozen peat bog the size of France and Germany combined
00:04:37:14 00:04:41:03 that we call the permafrost is melting,
00:04:41:04 00:04:45:02 and as it melts, it releases huge quantities of methane.
00:04:45:08 00:04:49:08 Methane is a greenhouse gas with a short lifespan in the atmosphere
00:04:49:10 00:04:54:15 but while there it has a warming effect more than 20 times as powerful as carbon dioxide.
00:04:54:16 00:04:58:08 The more methane is released, the more it adds to warming,
00:04:58:10 00:05:02:17 the more the permafrost melts, and the more methane is released.
00:05:03:05 00:05:09:08 The arctic tundra is not the only place with large stores of frozen methane.
00:05:09:12 00:05:14:09 Lurking under the sea bed there may be as much as 10 trillion tons of methane
00:05:14:10 00:05:17:21 stored as frozen crystals at sites around the world.
00:05:17:22 00:05:23:00 If we raise ocean temperatures by enough - and nobody knows how much is enough,
00:05:23:01 00:05:27:04 we could trigger the sudden release of this stored methane into the atmosphere.
00:05:27:16 00:05:35:03 The last time this happened, global temperatures rose abruptly by 10 degrees.
00:05:38:02 00:05:41:14 So, these are some of the feedback mechanisms
00:05:41:16 00:05:45:03 that explain why our global climate system has a tipping point.
00:05:45:05 00:05:49:02 Each feedback in the system has its own internal tipping point,
00:05:49:08 00:05:54:14 and it is the relationships within this complex, mutually reinforcing system,
00:05:54:15 00:05:58:13 that have been missing from our climate prediction models.
00:05:59:07 00:06:05:04 So far we have only pushed up global temperatures by around 0.8°C
00:06:05:23 00:06:11:23 but because of the 40 or 50 year time lag between emissions and temperature rise,
00:06:12:01 00:06:14:13 the emissions already in the atmosphere
00:06:14:13 00:06:20:12 commit us to raising temperatures by around another 0.6°C over the coming decades.
00:06:20:15 00:06:24:18 which could easily be enough to place us right at the peak of the hill
00:06:24:19 00:06:27:17 or even over it.
00:06:29:00 00:06:37:21 If we do pass this critical threshold, global temperatures could soar by as much as 6°C.
00:06:37:22 00:06:42:08 If this happens, the natural world will suffer a mass extinction event
00:06:42:09 00:06:46:17 which will wipe out the majority of the plants and animals with which we share the planet.
00:06:46:17 00:06:52:01 although there will be a lot more rats, flies, cockroaches and mosquitoes
00:06:52:02 00:06:55:09 as the world's ecosystems go into meltdown.
00:06:56:24 00:07:01:18 The first human impacts will come in the form of steeply declining access to fresh water,
00:07:01:20 00:07:05:25 as rainfall patterns change, glacier-fed rivers dry up,
00:07:06:01 00:07:08:20 and rising sea levels contaminate reservoirs.
00:07:08:22 00:07:14:17 As crops fail, forests burn, deserts spread and coastal regions flood permanently,
00:07:14:22 00:07:18:15 people will start to pack up their things in their billions
00:07:18:17 00:07:22:13 and move on in search of a better life elsewhere.
00:07:22:18 00:07:24:19 But where?
00:07:25:02 00:07:28:01 Humanity might survive this.
00:07:28:04 00:07:32:19 But what will 'humanity' mean in a world where countries which will remain habitable
00:07:32:24 00:07:39:13 like Britain, spend most of our resources fighting to keep out the starving millions
00:07:39:16 00:07:44:20 who can no longer live in their own countries because of what we have done?
00:07:45:22 00:07:48:14 The world is awash with weapons.
00:07:48:17 00:07:53:13 Enough firearms to arm one in every seven human beings on the planet.
00:07:55:01 00:07:59:19 As the world's ability to support the huge numbers of people alive today dwindles,
00:08:00:10 00:08:04:10 we will not die peacefully in our sleep.
00:08:06:05 00:08:09:00 OK, here's the good news:
00:08:09:00 00:08:12:02 None of this is inevitable – yet.
00:08:12:19 00:08:16:14 This is not the time to panic or to despair.
00:08:16:15 00:08:20:07 This is the time to act, while we still can.
00:08:21:00 00:08:24:05 We need to recognize that there is a huge question mark
00:08:24:06 00:08:28:02 over whether governments and corporations are capable of responding
00:08:28:04 00:08:30:12 to this threat in the time we have left.
00:08:30:13 00:08:35:12 They have had 20 years already and still have less than nothing to show for it.
00:08:36:22 00:08:41:06 This is because they remain committed to a doctrine that prioritises
00:08:41:07 00:08:48:06  short term profits and endless economic growth over the survival of life on earth.
00:08:48:19 00:08:51:25 There is no great mystery about what we need to do
00:08:52:00 00:08:54:18 to reduce emissions in line with the science.
00:08:55:03 00:08:59:21 we simply need to consume less.
00:08:59:21 00:09:03:07 But that is out of the question in a society
00:09:03:04 00:09:08:09 which is founded on the ever-increasing consumption of material resources and energy.
00:09:08:20 00:09:11:08 Nobody has all of the answers
00:09:11:08 00:09:16:05 but we do know that this is not the only way to live,
00:09:16:10 00:09:19:10 and given that it is almost certainly going to kill us all,
00:09:19:12 00:09:24:00 we'd better start looking urgently at some of the alternatives.
00:09:24:24 00:09:29:18 It's now very clear that in order to actually win the fight against climate change,
00:09:29:20 00:09:35:13 making big changes to the way we each live our own lives is not going to be enough.
00:09:35:13 00:09:41:10 we're also going to have to actively confront powerful vested interests
00:09:41:11 00:09:45:25 who will stop at nothing to prevent the changes we need from taking place.
00:09:45:23 00:09:49:09 We have to be more than just consumers.
00:09:50:12 00:09:53:13 These are extraordinary times.
00:09:53:18 00:09:59:25 Preventing runaway global warming is the most important task in all of human history.
00:09:59:15 00:10:02:18 and it has fallen to us to do it.
00:10:02:18 00:10:07:09 If we don't, then everything else we work to achieve in our lives
00:10:07:10 00:10:11:08 will be destroyed, or become meaningless.
00:10:11:10 00:10:15:07 Those who came before us didn't know about this problem,
00:10:15:08 00:10:18:25 and those who come after will be powerless to do anything about it.
00:10:19:16 00:10:23:07 But for us, there's still time!
00:10:23:10 00:10:27:02 We'd better get a move on though.
00:10:54:16 00:10:59:04 xxx translation by: yyyy